October 8, 2007 - The Indian government is to open formal negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency over the implementation of a civil nuclear deal with the US, setting the stage for a clash with its Communist allies that is likely to lead to early general elections, analysts predicted on Monday.

The Communist parties that back the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance have warned of “serious consequences” if the government “operationalises” the agreement by negotiating safeguards with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, whose head, Mohamed El Baradei, arrived in India last night on a long-scheduled visit.

Impatient with the left and increasingly confident of its own likely performance at the polls in the event of a snap election, the Congress party has decided to forge ahead with the implementation of the groundbreaking nuclear deal by starting negotiations with the IAEA over a safeguards agreement, analysts said.

“The Congress party has made its mind up that it is prepared to risk the government for the nuclear deal,” said C. Raja Mohan, a strategic affairs analyst. “Sometime towards the end of this week or perhaps on Monday, the government will make it clear that it has decided to move ahead and the ball will then be in the left’s court.”

New Delhi and Washington are under pressure to complete the deal before the Bush administration enters its final months. The three-step process involves securing IAEA safeguards, the consent of the 45 member Nuclear Suppliers Group and the approval of the US Congress of the entire package.

On Sunday, Sonia Gandhi, leader of the Congress party, angered the left by branding those opposed to the nuclear deal as regressive. “They are not only enemies of the Congress, but enemies of peace and development,” she said at a public meeting near New Delhi. “We should join hands to give them an appropriate answer.”

Much of Mrs Gandhi’s confidence stems from the disarray of the opposition BJP. At its national executive meeting in mid-September, the Hindu nationalist party, ousted from power in May 2004, ended its long search for a leader by selecting 80-year-old former deputy prime minister L.K. Advani over a number of key party functionaries.

“The BJP is clutching at any issue that comes its way, including mythical bridges, because Advani is 80 and running out of time,” said Mohan Guruswamy of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, referring to a row over a government plan to dredge a strait between India and Sri Lanka. Hindu groups say the works will destroy a bridge built by Lord Ram.

Recent polls have suggested the Congress party would return to power at the head of another coalition if an election were held today. A poll conducted by two media groups, the Indian Express and CNN/IBN, found the Congress-led coalition would fare better than in 2004, with 267 seats in parliament, just six seats short of the 273 needed for a majority.

The left faces a dilemma: while it is prepared to withdraw support from the government over its concern that India risks compromising its “independent foreign policy” by entering into a strategic partnership with the US, it is reluctant to be seen as joining forces with the Hindu nationalist opposition to bring down the government:

“This is the beginning of the end,” said Mr Guruswamy. “But the left will wait for a standalone economic issue, perhaps the budget in February, before pulling the plug. It knows that Congress wants the rug to be pulled from the government on the nuclear issue so that it can point fingers at both left and right for being anti-progress and anti-development at a time when every village in India is short of electricity.

"In a sign that the Congress party is preparing to take the battle to the country, its national committee in Delhi has prepared a 16-page pamphlet for mass distribution that explains the merits of the nuclear deal: ”This will allow every one of of our households to be lit; it will allow our children to study under proper lighting at home and at school; it will enable all of us to use electrical appliances...”

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