No Confidence Motion – New Delhi, November 19, 2012 –News n Analysis by Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist, on the issue of No Confidence Call given by Ms. Mamata Banerjee. Do you think BJP and Left would support her?
In my view, both BJP and Left may not support Mamata’s No-confidence motion against UPA Govt; the move sought for by Trinamool Congress is untimely and without consulting different parties prior to announcing this demand, which exercise was important for her to accomplish. This flop, if happens so, may cost her reputation and shall strengthen congress on the other hand.
To convince major parties to come to the support of Ms. Banerjee is not possible at this stage since they may not be interested in the early polls, and over and above, they would not like to give the credit of this lead to Ms. Banerjee. In addition, the major parties would not like to strengthen the scope of the third front.
SP may agree to play the game and not BSP who may feel safe being away from them for the time being.It is not the proper time for No Confidence Motion even for BJP who is facing internal problem of their own like the issue of Nitin Gadkari, which is still not fully settled.
Admit or not, the BJP on Gadkari’s issue has become morally weak and lost their estimation in public.
Since there is no political premium for any major political parties in this move, Ms. Banerjee seems to have thrown a wrong disk at the wrong time.
Frankly speaking, the credit worthiness of Trinamool Congress, SP or BSP is also not very creditworthy in terms of their firmness; their shaky attitude has always been a weak point. As regards Left, they can’t be taken as granted by Ms. Banerjee; it is better for her to keep quiet rather than to make her face small in Parliament.
Supposing No Confidence Motion gets a success for some reason or circumstances, it shall give a comfortable and tension free period of six months to UPA Govt. to make mend to their wrong doings, and that is enough for them to consolidate their strength they need to win adequate seats in the next General Elections.
Moreover, the Congress can play their cards before the people to gain their sympathy for early elections attempted by Opposition through No Confidence Motion irrespective of their consequences.
In short, No Confidence Motion shall strengthen the reliability of Congress on one hand and if the number of Opposition drops, they have to face the dire consequences in the General Elections for being weak parties.
If Ms. Banerjee convinces the parties with some concrete proposal to BJP, they may consider but the apprehension of making the third front strong could be a hindrance to them, which Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has made clear by selecting candidates of UP for the next election.
Even if the motion is passed and the government falls, there seems to be no concrete alternative with the opposition.
The only winning point with the opposition parties is that they can collectively make UPA Govt. not to get through certain decisions implemented which are to be routed through the parliament like FDI in multi-brand retail.
However, all parties whom Ms. Banerjee has contacted on No Confidence Motion are to think over the matter with all pros and cons and then to take the decision whether to lend their support or not.
In my view, No Confidence Motion is a misfit at this stage and shall indirectly benefit Congress.